January 2023 - Recap
It's fair to say the start of the year has been better than most expected, even for the bulls. January 2023 has seen Bitcoin gain over 40% in value and the overall market cap is up similarly at 30% with an inflow of $240 billion. The overall market cap hit the 1 trillion value this month.
We've bounced around a lot in the Fear and Greed index. We've had 3 'Extreme Fear' days and 3 'Greed' days but largely in the Neutral range
The start of the new year has also seen a lot of reflection and analysis of 2022 and it seems there have been a few good news stories in terms of the growth of the industry despite the rather dramatic price decline (albeit not anything unusual in Crypto Bear Markets).
2022 Reflections:
Goldman Sachs ranks Bitcoin above all else year-to-date
2022 saw a massive increase in Crypto holders according to the Crypto.com market report
Is this the bottom?
It's impossible for anyone to claim whether this is just a bear market rally or the beginning of a market trend reversal. Time will show if the bottom was indeed approx. $15,500 but it would be great to see Bitcoin hold the $18,000-$20,000 level for a couple of months to give that confirmation.What's causing this recent spike in price action?
Similar to the above, this could be a typical bear market rally. There is also certainly a correlation to the positive price action also seen in the equity markets. Equities have gained a fair amount of momentum this month. The FED has also hinted that rate hikes could be slowed in the coming months and possibly even paused.After such a long period of negative news and contagion over the last year, the last 8 weeks or so appear to be much more stable/positive. Perhaps traders are now seeing that the worst could be over and starting to use this time as a dip buying opportunity.
What I'm expecting in February
We don't know what we don't know and there could be more negative news & contagion to come. If no black swan events crop up, I'm expecting Bitcoin to cool off for a bit and form a new range bouncing around $18k-$25k for the new few months at least. This wouldn't be bad as it could set up the foundations for a bull market in the next 9-12 months. Crypto Twitter is predicting Bitcoin to exceed $25k, I'd love to be wrong but I'd much rather see us hold above $20k.
Tweet me @CryptoHogo with your thoughts on Jan and predictions for Feb.
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